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Research base

The numbers shaping youth, school, and work

Y2O is a product, not a study. Every claim on this site links to a public source.

The case

What the public data shows

Four numbers we keep coming back to.

914K

Youth off track

Canadians 15 to 29 not in school, work, or training.

Government of Canada / ESDC, 2025
39%

Skills are changing

Of workers' core skills, by 2030.

World Economic Forum, 2025
87%

Grades compressed

UBC average entrance grade, up from 70%.

Fraser Institute, 2024
40h

The legal floor

Community involvement needed to graduate in Ontario.

Ontario Ministry of Education
The shift

Grades compress, so the record has to do more

When top grades all look the same, what students did beyond class carries the weight.

Twenty years ago the average admitted student at UBC had 70%. Today it's 87%. The same shift shows up at most major Canadian universities.

When the top quarter of grades all look the same, the record has to separate them.

Universities now adjust grades by school and look harder at confirmed work. Employers do the same. The record has to start earlier.

UBC average entrance grade

Then vs now, twenty years apart

70%
87%
20042024
+17 points Source: Fraser Institute, 2024
The grades problem

Why grades alone no longer work

The data has moved in one direction for two decades.

Adj.
Applied school by school

Admissions adjustment

Waterloo Engineering adjusts grades to compare high schools fairly.

University of Waterloo
+17
UBC entrance grade, 20 years

Grade inflation

From 70% to 87%. The same trend shows up across Canada.

Fraser Institute, 2024
−35
PISA points, 2003 to 2022

Achievement decline

Math scores fell about a full grade level while grades rose.

OECD PISA, via Fraser Institute

The short version: grades went up, measured achievement went down. The record students build outside class fills the gap.

Future of work

What's rising, and what's falling

The rising skills are about thinking, leading, and learning. Not specific tools.

Rising by 2030 Illustrative

  • AI and big data
  • Creative thinking
  • Resilience and flexibility
  • Leadership

Falling by 2030 Illustrative

  • Customer service
  • Manual dexterity
  • Routine reading and writing

Skill direction from the World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs 2025. Bar lengths are illustrative, not WEF figures.

Sources we cite

The reports behind Y2O

All public. No paywalls between you and the source.

Skills39%

World Economic Forum

Future of Jobs Report · 2025

Core skills expected to change by 2030.

weforum.org →
Youth914K

Government of Canada / ESDC

Labour market · 2025

Youth 15 to 29 not in school, work, or training.

canada.ca →
Admissions87%

Fraser Institute

Entrance grade report · 2024

UBC average entrance grade, up from 70%.

fraserinstitute.org →
Ontario40h

Ontario Ministry of Education

Secondary School Diploma

Community involvement needed to graduate. The floor, not the ceiling.

ontario.ca →
AdmissionsAdj.

University of Waterloo

Engineering admissions

School-by-school adjustment to incoming grades.

uwaterloo.ca →
Achievement−35

OECD PISA

2003 to 2022 · math

Canadian math scores down about a full grade level.

oecd.org →

Informed by, not endorsed by. These organizations are not affiliated with Y2O and do not endorse it.

FAQ

Questions about the research

Still wondering? info@youth2opportunities.ca

Do these organizations endorse Y2O?+

No. We cite their public research. They are not affiliated with Y2O.

Do you commission your own research?+

No. We don't commission reports and then quote them as independent.

Why include grade inflation?+

It shows why grades alone are a weaker signal than they used to be.

Are the sources linked?+

Yes. Every number on this page links to its public source.

Build with the data in mind

Start before the record is needed

Live now across Ontario.